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Fantasy Baseball: Mookie Betts is a buy-low candidate given his track record, plus more skill vs. luck factors

In our weekly hitter skill and luck factor article, we're doing a slightly deeper examination of several players. Sometimes hitters can outperform and underperform expectations throughout various points in the season. Not all hitters who may appear to be struggling will be buy-low options. There are instances where struggling hitters lead us to adjust our expectations. Meanwhile, hitters could be among the most added lists, yet the underlying metrics tell us to be cautious. Should we hold, sell or buy these five hitters?

Ketel Marte, 2B, Diamondbacks (99% Rostered)

Before May, Ketel Marte hit five home runs, with 18 runs plus RBI, zero stolen bases and a .233 batting average. Since May 1, Marte has been performing better. He hit five home runs with 44 runs plus RBI and a .286 batting average. It's important to be patient with veteran hitters who have a strong track record like Marte.

He is making contact at a similar rate (80.8%), but chasing more often (33.3%) this season. That's a near nine-point increase in Marte's chase rate while swinging in the zone 66.2% of the time, close to the career norms. Marte's increased chase rate seems to be impacting his walk rate (8%) and OBP (.315). For context, Marte had an 11.5% walk rate and a .376 OBP in 2025.

Here's a look at the Diamondbacks infielder's average over the past three seasons.

Marte is pulling the ball at the highest rate of his career, 57.7% of the time. That's 10 percentage points higher than his pull rate in 2025 (47.5%), though it has been rising over the previous two seasons. As a switch-hitter, he pulls the ball relatively even on both sides of the plate. Thankfully, Marte pulls the ball into the air often, evidenced by a 25.3% pulled-air rate in 2026, higher than the previous high mark last season (23.5%).

He consistently barrels the ball over the past few seasons, with an 8.4% barrel rate per plate appearance in 2026, close to 2025 (9.7%) and 2024 (8.6%). That seems to be an upward trend in barrel rates, which coincides with him pulling the ball more often. Marte's power skills suggest he will post another 25+ home run season this year.

After a slow start, Marte's skills point toward a repeat of 2025.

Bryan Reynolds, OF, Pirates (90% Rostered)

After 24 or more home runs from 2021 to 2024, Bryan Reynolds only hit 16 home runs in 2025. Reynolds continues to hit plenty of ground balls (53.1%) this season, after hovering around 45-46% over the previous two seasons. If hitters like Reynolds hit the ball on the ground, we need them to smash batted balls when they elevate them. Reynolds averages 94.8 mph (No. 68) on flyballs and line drives this season, similar to 2025 (95.1 mph) and 2024 (94.5 mph). The data indicates that Reynolds hits the ball hard into the air, so the power outcome could return.

His contact rates have been similar this year to previous seasons. However, it's worth noting that Reynolds is swinging less often (43.6%) this season after swinging 49-50% of the time. Meanwhile, Reynolds's 67.5% zone swing rate is five points lower than his career average. That coincides with Reynolds posting a career-high walk rate (16.4%) and a .399 OBP, over 40 points higher than his career average. If this continues from a plate discipline standpoint, Reynolds could be a high-end asset in points and OBP leagues.

The projections indicate Reynolds will have similar counting stats in 2026 to 2025, with 20 home runs as the peak. However, he can boost his fantasy value if he walks often and shows patience (zone swing rates), with a decent batting average.

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Mookie Betts, SS, Dodgers (98% Rostered)

After two somewhat down seasons relative to expectations, Mookie Betts has been struggling with six home runs, zero stolen bases and a .189 batting average. He has been unlucky, with a .167 BABIP, 130 points below his career BABIP. Interestly, Betts has been hitting at a career-high rate of flyballs (51%). Hitters with high flyball rates tend to have lower BABIPs, which has likely been impacting Betts. On a positive note, Betts has been fortunate from a home run per flyball (HR/F) perspective at 12.2%, after a HR/F in the single digits (2024-2025). We should see his batted ball profile level out as the season progresses.

Betts's plate discipline remains elite, given his 87% contact rate, 21.4% chase rate and a 5.4% swinging-strike rate. That's helpful because Betts is slightly barreling up the ball more consistently again this season, with an 6.6% barrel rate per plate appearance after he sat under 5% over the previous two seasons. If he continues to have an above-average barrel rate, it will bode well for his chances of hitting more than 20 home runs.

His 9% stolen base opportunity is similar to his career norms (13%). Betts hasn't converted a single stolen base in his two chances, though it's a small sample. After stealing double-digit bases in 10 straight seasons, it fell to eight in 2025. It will hurt Betts's fantasy value if he finishes with single-digit steals and 20 home runs.

Since Betts is off to such a brutal start, he'll need to be scorching hot for a long stretch to make up for it. We may need to adjust our expectations for Betts as he ages, though his strong plate discipline and above-average power give him a solid floor. Like the Manny Machado situation from a previous article, it makes sense to want to buy low on Betts based on his track record.

Colton Cowser, OF, Orioles (6% Rostered)

Colton Cowser was trending upward after hitting all four of his home runs since the middle of May. Cowser has been teasing us with his power and speed in the previous two seasons, yet his .196 batting average in 2025 won't cut it over the long term. Unfortunately, Cowser's playing time has been sporadic as a strong-side platoon option who lacks consistent playing time. He faced one of 14 left-handed starting pitchers since the start of May. Meanwhile, out of 17 games against right-handed starters, Cowser started in 12 games. They seem to have faced a large number of lefties, though ideally he plays more consistently against righties.

Cowser strikes out 32% of the time in his career, which indicates plate discipline can be problematic. That's evident by Cowser's 68.3% contact and 14% swinging-strike rate. His contact rate sits nearly 10 percentage points below the league average, leading to some volatility. If hitters struggle to make contact, we want them to hit the ball hard.

Here's a look at the Orioles OFers bat speed distribution since 2023.

Cowser boasts an above-average bat speed (74.5 mph) and ability to hit barrels (6.2%). His bat speed sits one mph higher than his career average, with his barrel rate being around 8% in his previous two seasons. Cowser should hit 25-30 home runs with his power and bat speed, but the contact issues remain a legitimate issue.

After having consistent pull rates and flyball rates (around 39%) over the previous two seasons, Cowser's flyball rate 36.5% and groundball rate (48.6%) have been fluctuating by a few points. Since Cowser is hitting more groundballs, it directly impacts his launch angle and barrel rate. Hopefully, Cowser's batted-ball profile shifts closer to his career norms.

We might think a hitter like Cowser lacks consistent playing time because of his defense and athleticism. However, Cowser boasts a 70th-percentile Sprint Speed, 87th-percentile Outs Above Average and an 83rd-percentile Arm Strength. Unfortunately, the Orioles continue to toy with Cowser's playing time, so he lacks fantasy relevance unless the playing time increases. The tools exist, so keep tabs on Cowser's playing time. If he starts playing more, he can be a deep-league waiver option.

Joc Pederson, UTIL, Rangers (10% Rostered)

Historically, Joc Pederson seems to go on these offensive surges. This might be one of them after hitting five home runs over the two weeks. After Pederson had a contact rate of around 77%, his 71.7% contact rate is the worst since 2015, not including the 2020 season. That coincides with Pederson's 12.5% swinging-strike rate, which is 1.5 points higher than his career norm. Pederson has probably been fortunate based on the rolling averages below, especially given his spike in home run rate (HR/F).

Here's a look at the Rangers DH's average over the past three seasons.

He often showed patience at the plate, given his 14.4% walk rate and .364 OBP in 2026. Assuming Pederson's plate discipline regresses closer to the career averages, he can be a deep-league fantasy option for power. As Pederson ages, his barrel rate per plate appearance has been declining from 7.6% (2024) to 6.2% (2025) and 5.9% (2026). After Pederson posted a 73.4 mph bat speed in 2024 and 2025, it dipped to a career low (71.8) in 2026.

Pederson can be a strong-side platoon option for power in deeper leagues. However, fantasy managers will need to check the weekly schedules to identify when to stream him. Don't overreact to Pederson's recent stretch of production via home runs, especially considering his positional inflexibility as a primary designated hitter.

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